Impact of Premarital Cohabitation on Stability of First Marriage in China: An Analysis Based on CFPS Data

Lu Jiehua, Gu Yuchen 

Published in Population Research, 2025, Vol. 49, No. 1.

Abstract: In line with the expectations of the Second Demographic Transition, premarital cohabitation is becoming increasingly common in China. Based on China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data from 2010 to 2022, this study adopts the Cox proportional hazards regression model to analyze the influence of premarital cohabitation on the stability of first marriage and its mechanisms. This study also tests several competing hypotheses, including the Trial Marriage Hypothesis, the Experience Hypothesis, the Selectivity Hypothesis, and the Diffusion Hypothesis. The findings show that the risk of divorce at first marriage is significantly higher for those who have experienced premarital cohabitation, and the negative effect of premarital cohabitation on the stability of first marriage remains robust even after accounting for the self-selection effect. The cultural meaning and prevalence of premarital cohabitation vary across different groups. Further analysis reveals the moderating effects of birth cohorts and education levels. Overall, premarital cohabitation still has a negative effect on the stability of first marriage in the Chinese context. However, as cohabitation gradually spreads among recent birth cohorts and highly educated groups, its negative influence weakens, supporting the main argument of the Diffusion Hypothesis.

Keywords: Premarital Cohabitation, Stability of First Marriage, Event History Analysis, Moderating Effect.